Germans now know how much it will cost them to take a leading role in European defense – and they seem to accept it. According to the federal government’s plans, the defense budget will amount to €152.8 billion in 2029 – if the Bundestag confirms the figure, the budget will be about three times higher than it was before the war in Ukraine began. The country that wanted nothing more to do with war now seems well on its way to becoming one of NATO’s model allies.
It is remarkable how pragmatic Friedrich Merz has become since he realized his lifelong dream of becoming chancellor. The debt brake, the core of the conservatives’ financial policy, was partially suspended shortly after the February elections by his Union (CDU and CSU), with the help of the SPD and the Greens. Despite the increase in defense spending, the opposition remains unusually silent. It is true that the left and the far right of Alternative für Deutschland are partly opposed, but the Greens are not criticizing the amount of spending, so the government can count on an opposition party that is very close to it on foreign policy. It is difficult for the Green Party to criticize the increase in defense spending: its leading candidate, Robert Habeck, had called for 3.5 percent of GDP to be allocated to defense during the election campaign. Sara Nanni, spokesperson for security policy for the Greens in the Bundestag, tells Il Foglio Europeo that she intends to monitor how the funds are spent: “For us, it will be detective work”.
However, Nanni warns that the Greens, as a European movement, could return to a more cautious stance on defense, but “considering a Russia that continues to rearm and publicly declares its intention to attack us, that would be more than irresponsible”, she says.
Over the past three years, the Greens have become strong supporters of Ukraine, but before Vladimir Putin’s large-scale invasion, they were considered a party for disarmament. The party’s change is logical, according to Nanni: “We have been the best at dealing with this transformation because we are not afraid to reflect on existential crises and find solutions to deal with them”. The direction the SPD will take, on the other hand, is still unclear.
The wing led by Defense Minister Boris Pistorius supports increased military spending. But in June, a “manifesto” promoting peace, signed by some prominent SPD members, caused quite a stir. The signatories called for a change of course toward Russia and criticized NATO’s rearmament plans. Minister Pistorius often speaks of the need for Germany to return to being “ready for war” – an expression that is difficult for German ears and for part of his own party to accept. Despite this – or perhaps because of it – he is the most popular politician in the country.
These elements reveal a lot about the change Germany is undergoing in terms of security. According to a study by the Körber-Stiftung, almost three-quarters of Germans said in November that Germany should invest more in European security. War had long disappeared from the collective consciousness of Germans, but much is being done to bring it back. On June 15, Germany celebrated its first National Veterans’ Day: those who fought for their country must be given attention. Since 2020, Bundeswehr soldiers have been able to travel free of charge on almost all trains, provided they are in uniform. If you take a long-distance train in Germany, you are likely to encounter one of the more than 180,000 Bundeswehr soldiers: this is intended to make the military more visible and an integral part of society. The fact that many soldiers helped out in vaccination centers during the pandemic has helped raise public awareness of the armed forces.
The government also wants to introduce voluntary military service, but the debate is already a step further: if Germany wants to achieve its ambitious military growth targets, it must address the issue of compulsory conscription. Most young people are still against it, but the reputation of the Bundeswehr has improved.
The German arms industry is also emerging from the shadows and benefiting from huge spending. Before the war in Ukraine, Rheinmetall’s share price in Düsseldorf was around €100, now it is almost 18 times that. The group is doing a lot to win over public opinion. In May last year, the tank manufacturer signed a sponsorship deal with the Borussia Dortmund soccer club. The club’s CEO, Hans-Joachim Watzke, said this could contribute to the public debate. Other defense companies, such as the drone startup Quantum Systems, are advertising heavily to recruit staff. If defense spending increases, someone will have to build the weapons. “I don’t think this makes anyone happy”, Pistorius said at the end of June, explaining how the new funds will be spent: “The times are such that this is necessary.” He also thanked Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
