This is the time for good resolutions and great expectations, as befits the beginning of a new year, which started with quite a few jolts, between Venezuela and Greenland, passing through Russian bombs on Ukraine – and one cannot say that 2025 ended in calm and peace. Given that the world is turning upside down with us Europeans squirming in the middle trying not to be crushed, we asked some European journalists and experts to think together about what will come: what is the best and the worst thing you expect from 2026?
The best development in 2026 would be an end to the killing in Ukraine, on the basis of an agreement that is fully legitimate among Ukrainians and sees the EU unblock the country’s rapid path towards full membership of the union – helping create a much stronger and robust European order, with independent agency from other powers. The worst development would be if Trump and the MAGA movement intervene effectively in European politics in ways that turn politics in the continent in a decisively authoritarian direction – something the new US national security strategy threatens and that would represent the most existential threat to the EU perhaps since its creation.
Richard Youngs, Professor of international relations at the University of Warwick, author of the book “Europe: Geoliberal order and the test of war”. He writes for Foreign Affairs.
The worst I expect from 2026 is that the recent US operation in Venezuela does not translate into a better life for Venezuelans. On January 3, the United States captured Nicolás Maduro, a ruthless dictator who starved, jailed, and tortured his people, driving many into exile. But Donald Trump has declared that the US will run the country, with no defined timeline for elections. He has sidelined not only María Corina Machado, the Nobel Peace Prize winner, but also Edmundo González, who won the 2024 election. Meanwhile, the chavista state apparatus remains intact, now headed by Delcy Rodríguez, Maduro’s vice president. Rival factions—once kept in check by Maduro—could turn on one another, fueling instability and renewed repression. The arrest of 14 journalists (13 international) on January 5 is a stark signal that democracy—a word Trump did not utter once—remains distant, and it is unclear whether this “transition” is even meant to deliver it. Trump’s expressed interest in interventions elsewhere in the hemisphere also signals a decisive break with the post–World War II order.
Claire Meynial, Correspondent in the United States for the French weekly Le Point, author of “La Guerre des Amériques.”
“In 2026, Le Soir will continue to closely monitor the evolution of the European Union, now more than ever master of its own destiny. We will pay particular attention to possible alliances with the far right, which cannot be a solution for Europe. Without daring to hope too much, we wish for a year in which peace returns to Ukraine and other regions of the world, such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, Sudan, or Gaza, to name a few examples. May 2026 be a year in which ‘deals’ give way to genuine policies aimed at the good of all, and not just a few privileged individuals.”
Maxime Biermé, Foreign chief correspondent for Le Soir.
The best thing I expect from 2026 is the establishment of a Democracy Shield by the European Union. This initiative, which includes a focus on safeguarding elections, strengthening civil society and defending citizens and institutions from foreign disinformation and manipulation, suggests that European Countries are finally getting serious about the growing threat to democratic norms and values from hostile authoritarian states. The worst thing is that we will see a further decline in the quality of democracy around the world next year. More governments opposed to civil liberties and political rights will either be elected or will take power through force, with insufficient efforts by democratic states to stop them. As a result, authoritarian powers will soon be in a majority globally, and democratic government risks becoming an endangered species.
Nic Cheeseman, professor of democracy at Birmingham, former director of the African Studies Centre at Oxford. He writes for Foreign Affairs.
