Crucial European Council for Ukraine
Will the leaders of the European Union manage to keep their promise to support Ukraine “for as long as it takes” and secure its funding in 2026 so that it can continue to defend itself and refuse the imposition of a capitulation plan? This is the main stake of the European Council on December 18th and 19th, at a time when the war of aggression launched by Vladimir Putin has entered a new dramatic phase due to Donald Trump’s determination to end it even on terms that would reward Russia. Even before his 28-point plan emerged, drafted by his envoy Steve Witkoff and directly inspired by the Kremlin, the issue of Ukraine’s financing was urgent for the EU. By the end of the first quarter of next year, the Kyiv government will be without money to pay salaries, pensions and weapons. In her State of the Union address in early September, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen had proposed a “reparation loan” of 140 billion euros, financed by immobilized Russian sovereign assets, receiving the blessing of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. But she had not reckoned with Belgium, the country where 185 billion in Russian sovereign assets are immobilized in the Euroclear company following sanctions introduced in 2022. Its Prime Minister, Bart De Wever, has resisted the reparation loan due to the financial risks that would fall on Belgium, which could reach one-third of GDP. His is not a definitive “no” to the use of Russian sovereign assets, the solution preferred by a majority of member states. But De Wever would like to resort to other options, such as a common debt instrument guaranteed by the EU budget to provide the grants Ukraine needs in 2026. Other countries—such as Italy and France—would prefer this solution, to avoid taking on liabilities and potential outlays of tens of billions of euros in their budgets. But von der Leyen has said she opposes making European taxpayers foot the bill. European Council President António Costa has promised there will be a result in favor of Ukraine at the summit on December 18th and 19th. Whether it will be the reparation loan with Russian sovereign assets, or a common EU debt instrument, will depend on negotiations in the coming days. If European leaders are unable to reach an agreement, Ukraine may have no choice but to surrender to Trump and Putin’s plans.
A European Council to Set the Structure of the EU’s Next Budget
António Costa has set another objective for the heads of state and government summit on December 18 and 19: to reach an agreement on the general structure of the multiannual financial framework, the EU’s 2028-34 budget. The Danish Council presidency, which has led negotiations since July, when the Commission presented its proposal, has succeeded in the feat of avoiding a major clash between member states on the structure of the “nego box.” In EU jargon, this expression—short for “negotiating box”—indicates the budget structure, with the major chapters, expenditure and revenue items, as well as the financial regulations of different policies. The Commission’s proposal implies a de facto renationalization of traditional policies—agriculture and cohesion—whose resources will be pooled into a single fund and managed directly by member states. The European Parliament has protested, but only a minimal part of its suggestions has been integrated. The Danish presidency’s small miracle is having preserved the Commission’s original structure, whose objective is to free up resources for new priorities, such as defense and competitiveness. The General Affairs Council on December 16th is called upon to prepare the ground for the summit two days later, when heads of state and government will put their stamp on the “nego box.” The most complicated negotiation, that on the figures of the EU’s future budget, will begin immediately afterward, in January. The European Council President wants a final agreement by the end of 2026 to avoid the risk of having to negotiate with a French president who could bear the name Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella.
The Commission Extends the Life of the Combustion Engine Beyond 2035
The end of the combustion engine had been set in European law for the year 2035, a decision that was supposed to be irreversible to force carmakers to invest in the technology of the future, electric vehicles, and to guarantee clean and more affordable mobility for citizens. From that year, no new car emitting CO2 would be registered anymore. At least that’s what Ursula von der Leyen said while trying to sell the great advantages of electric vehicles. But the Commission President is preparing for another about-face on the Green Deal. Under pressure from several governments—to which Germany has been added—von der Leyen will make her proposals on December 10 to revise CO2 standards for cars. The Commission is expected to decide to extend the life of gasoline and diesel cars beyond 2035, inserting exceptions for plug-in hybrid engines and range extenders. Italy should obtain what it has long been asking for on biofuels. The Commission appears ready to embark on complicated calculations of gross and net emissions to ensure that new cars after 2035 will still be zero-emission.
Interior Ministers Give the Green Light to the Rwanda Model
The EU had virulently criticized the United Kingdom for its attempt to reach an agreement with Rwanda to deport asylum seekers to the African country, leaving them there even if they obtained international protection. But now it is on the verge of adopting the same “Rwanda model.” Interior Ministers are expected to reach an agreement at their December 8 meeting on the revision of the “safe country concept” proposed by the Commission, which provides for the possibility of concluding agreements with third countries where asylum seekers who have entered the EU can be deported (and left). The legal objections of those who maintain that the principle of “non-refoulement” is being violated have not been taken into consideration. The priority is “innovative solutions” that should serve not only to keep migrants away but also to deport asylum seekers elsewhere. Interior Ministers are also expected to approve the new regulation on the EU list of “safe countries of origin,” which anticipates the possibility of treating asylum applications from countries for which the percentage of decisions recognizing international protection at the EU level is below 20 percent with an expedited procedure.
Change of Presidency at Midnight on New Year’s Day
December 31th will be the last day of the Danish presidency of the EU Council, whose results have been decidedly positive. The next day the baton will pass to Cyprus, an EU member state since 2004, an island divided in half after the Turkish invasion and not yet reunified, closer to the Middle East and its complexities than to the rest of Europe. Its role as a “gateway” to this strategic region will be one of the themes of the six months of the Cypriot presidency of the EU Council. A summit with Middle Eastern and North African countries is scheduled for April.
