Moscow may provoke a crisis in the Baltic states under the guise of “protecting the Russian-speaking population,” similar to the Kremlin’s operation to annex Crimea in 2014.
This is not my claim — nor is it a statement from Ukrainian officials. It is the official position of the Head of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service, Bruno Kahl. And it strongly echoes the warnings voiced by many other senior officials, especially intelligence and military leaders across Europe. Moreover, it resonates with what I have been hearing for months from numerous European colleagues.
People must be told about the threat of a Russian attack — now. That is a direct responsibility of EU leaders. Because the most vital resource Europeans need today is time. And that time is currently being bought by the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian people.
Still, I understand that many European governments are under pressure from their own publics. The war in Ukraine is dragging on, and few want to imagine war on their own streets. Populists promise easy solutions. Nevertheless, in the near future, Europe must focus on several critical areas in foreign and security policy.
First — support for Ukraine, both financial and military. While Ukrainian soldiers risk their lives every day, facing an enemy with superior numbers, our weapons stockpiles are running low. Time means lives. And every delay comes at a cost.
You cannot imagine how vital systems like IRIS-T, SAMP/T, or Patriot are to millions living in Kyiv, Lviv, Kharkiv and other Ukrainian cities — or how important CAESAR systems, FH70 howitzers, various types of ammunition, vehicles, and equipment are to the hundreds of thousands of troops defending positions near Pokrovsk, Kramatorsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Sumy.
That is why it is critical to continue arms deliveries and fulfill the plans we have developed over years of partnership. Europe’s capabilities and potential are not inferior to Russia’s. What matters now is the political will and concrete steps to accelerate weapons supply.
Second — maintaining the course toward Ukraine’s integration into the European Union. Despite all the challenges, missteps on our part, or resistance from certain EU members, Ukraine must continue its path toward the EU. This is not only about economics, diplomacy, or politics — it is a matter of our nation’s civilizational choice. And the EU needs Ukraine. One of the lessons of this war is clear: where European values and rules do not reach, Russian soldiers do — creating a direct threat to Europe’s security and prosperity.
Ukraine is not asking for special treatment. We are ready to go through every required step. But we ask that political decisions not be delayed when conditions are met. Ukraine’s integration is not just EU enlargement. It is a strengthening of Europe — demographically, economically, and in terms of security.
Third — Europe must stop being merely an “importer of American weapons.” Europe must become a producer. Building its own defense industry is not only a question of military capacity but also of sovereignty. If you cannot rapidly and massively produce what is needed to defend your values, those values may be lost. Strategic autonomy is not an abstract concept — it is the concrete ability to supply allies in a critical moment. And that moment has come.
Bureaucratic obstacles must be set aside, and the EU must develop a common defense industrial plan that includes not only national manufacturers, but also Ukrainian defense enterprises. This would not only help supply the Armed Forces of Ukraine more efficiently but would also revitalize Europe’s defense economy for the long term.
Today, Ukraine is a hub not only of combat operations but also of innovation. Our startups in drones, air defense, cybersecurity, and logistics are already creating solutions that are changing modern warfare. It’s time to acknowledge: integrating Ukrainian defense technologies offers the EU a vital edge in a new reality.
The coming months will be marked by strategic uncertainty. And we understand well: such periods often tempt us to pause, to wait, to delay decisions. But it is precisely in moments of turbulence that strategic clarity is needed.
If the European Union wants to remain a subject, not an object, of geopolitics — it must act now. Supporting Ukraine means giving Putin zero chance to succeed — and preventing him from standing on Poland’s borders a year from now.
Scaling up production means preparing for the long road ahead — reinforcing the defense capabilities of Italy, Germany, France, and other European nations. Integrating Ukraine means choosing the power of unity.
I say this not as a diplomat. I say this as a citizen of a country that pays in blood every day for our shared values. But also — as a European who believes Europe can be bold.
Europe is not just a market. It is a community. A community we are building together today — in Kyiv, Rome, Warsaw, Berlin, Paris, Brussels. And in every city where people understand that freedom is not guaranteed. It must be defended.
